According to some tests done by Dr. Sanjay Joshi, you can easily get 12-18 months from a MH bulb. If I remember correctly, in the 1st 6 months, a MH bulb will lose aprox 10% of it's output. During the next 12 months, it will only lose about 5% more for a total of aprox 15% loss of output in 18 months. After about 18 months, the bulbs start shifting in color to more red.
T5's are good for about a year.